The latest SUSA poll shows Al Franken trailing Norm Coleman 51%-41%, a big drop from 47-46 Coleman a month ago.
Nearly all of the decline is due to women, who went from Franken +5 to Coleman +12, a swing of 17%. The big questions are:
Does the workers’ comp fine have anything to do with this? Or does the McCain surge we’re seeing have coattails, in case we must be very afraid? Or is Al Franken too quirky? The last alternative is that this is an outlier, though usually there’s a reason for poll moves.
The key is that all the movement between the past 2 SUSA Coleman/Franken test polls was from women. That makes no sense absent something specific that would endear only women to Coleman or piss off only women about Franken.
Now, there is the caveat that because subsamples have higher margins of error, one can hypothesize that overall results are largely accurate while the gender breakdown is in error. But that’s a tough hypothesis to argue, especially in this case given the data and circumstantial evidence across polls.
But I wouldn’t call it a McCain surge, so much as discontent with a lack of final candidate to run against McCain in the general. I suspect it’s an outlier more so than a fundamental shift in the race.
specifically the day the Spitzer stuff broke.
That could explain these numbers.
I want another poll before I say he tanked.
early anti-Obama women anger at Clinton losing? How did Obama do with women in Minnesota?
carry one poll as a key to their message. I’m calling it an outlier until we have another poll to affirm or deny this poll.